Well, for the first time ever, Amazon announced last week that e-books had outsold traditionally-bound books. Here's one of many articles published on it:
http://www.kippreport.com/2011/05/ebooks-outsell-booky-books-so-what/
And of course, we've got to slam them, right? What's this 'books of questionable quality' crap? Like no bound book was ever a wall-banger? Yes, I understand this is the Wild West of publishing right now, but there are still good books and icky books and books that have a narrow market. But that's not really different than it's ever been. Books are still selling largely by word of mouth--which is why some e-authors are selling gajillions and other are selling nil.
So here we are, apparently, at the Tipping Point.
I really, really, REALLY want an e-book reader. But I only want one. And I don't know what that one is. I like the e-ink, but I also like a color display. If and when old copies of Godey's Ladies Book or other such items become available, I'd like the ability to examine the illustrations in color, to see the detail in the drawings and the different colored layers in the clothing or what have you. Right now I want a Kindle for the ability to read easily, and an iPad for the lovely color display and the ability to read Time Magazine and Scientific American on it and get the full effect.
I've become an iPad rumor whore, dashing from website to website looking to see when they might come up with the magic instrument of my desires. So far the fairy godmother hasn't landed. So I wait.
But back to the subject at hand. Admittedly, Amazon's customers are already computer-savvy. They're not afraid to try something new, given the fact that they're shopping online for everything from groceries to platform shoes. I see this as the tip of the iceburg. I think there will always be some paper/hardback books printed, but I can see in 10 years that it could very well be a print-on-demand service. Those who insist on paper will have to order it in advance, have it printed and (::gasp!::) shipped to them.
Either that, or shop at the Boy Scout Rummage Sale, Goodwill, and the Salvation Army Thrift Store, as those will be the only places left with paper books.
Am I being too pessimistic? Was the Rapture really about our books, and we just misunderstood? Tell me your predictions for the literary world for the next. . . . let's say 5 years.
5 comments:
Hi, Carol, Actually,I don't think you're being pessimistic. I think you're being optimistic, but I'm in IT by trade, so technology doesn't bother me. Yes, I thought I'd miss print books. But over a year ago I bought a Nook. I haven't purchased a mass-market paperback since, and I'm not really sure that I really do miss them.
Really? That's very heartening. I definitely love technology, I just think this is one of the most amazing seismic shifts we've ever seen. Wish I had a crystal ball!!
I don't think print books will ever go away. At least, not until paper becomes scarce. :) I do think that ebooks is a revolution, though, and a great way to reach even more readers. It seems to me that anything that gets people reading is a positive thing.
I think it'll be interesting to see where the price points fall in digital publishing. Will books that go through some kind of gatekeeper process be more expensive? Will this go back to Econ 101, where a higher price can equal a higher perceived value? Will there actually be a higher value? My guess is we'll see some kind of tiered structure emerge eventually, with self-pubbed books cheaper and books published through a publishing house of some kind (with editorial support) a bit more.
With, of course, a fair number of exceptions to that.
Ah, this seems to be the current mainstream topic among readers, Carol. Personally, I think that five years is too short a time to see a drastic change between e-printing vs hard copy printing.
The generation that grew up with bound books in their hands will have to die off,first. As long as we are around, I agree with Laurie in that paper books will not disappear. But once the new Internet Age has fully taken hold of ALL readers(when all anyone has ever really known is an e-copy), the hard copy might then become a, shall we say, "Collector's" item. :'(
But in five years I think it will basically be the same as it is today.
JH!
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